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Fire blight is a devastating disease affecting pome fruit trees that is caused by Erwinia amylovora and leads to substantial annual losses worldwide. While antibiotic-based management approaches like streptomycin can be effective, there are concerns over evolved resistance of the pathogen and non-target effects on beneficial microbes and insects. Using microbial biological control agents (mBCAs) to combat fire blight has promise, but variable performance necessitates the discovery of more effective solutions. Here we used a niche-based predictive framework to assess the strength of priority effects exerted by prospective mBCAs, and the mechanisms behind growth suppression in floral nectar. Through in vitro and in vivo assays, we show that antagonist impacts on nectar pH and sucrose concentration were the primary predictors of priority effects. Surprisingly, overlap in amino acid use, and the degree of phylogenetic relatedness between mBCA and Erwinia did not significantly predict pathogen suppression in vitro, suggesting that competition for limited shared resources played a lesser role than alterations in the chemical environment created by the initial colonizing species. We also failed to detect an association between our measures of in vitro and in vivo Erwinia suppression, suggesting other mechanisms may dictate mBCA establishment and efficacy in flowers, including priming of host defenses.